What do data on millions of US workers reveal about lifecycle earnings dynamics?

F Guvenen, F Karahan, S Ozkan, J Song - Econometrica, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
We study individual male earnings dynamics over the life cycle using panel data on millions
of US workers. Using nonparametric methods, we first show that the distribution of earnings …

Macroeconomics and household heterogeneity

D Krueger, K Mitman, F Perri - Handbook of macroeconomics, 2016 - Elsevier
The goal of this chapter is to study how, and by how much, household income, wealth, and
preference heterogeneity amplify and propagate a macroeconomic shock. We focus on the …

When inequality matters for macro and macro matters for inequality

SH Ahn, G Kaplan, B Moll… - NBER …, 2018 - journals.uchicago.edu
We develop an efficient and easy to use computational method for solving a wide class of
general equilibrium heterogeneous agent models with aggregate shocks together with an …

Inequality and aggregate demand

A Auclert, M Rognlie - 2018 - nber.org
We explore the transmission mechanism of income inequality to output. In the short run,
higher inequality reduces output because marginal propensities to consume are negatively …

The matching multiplier and the amplification of recessions

C Patterson - American Economic Review, 2023 - aeaweb.org
This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies
aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive …

Shocks, frictions, and inequality in US business cycles

C Bayer, B Born, R Luetticke - American Economic Review, 2024 - pubs.aeaweb.org
We show how a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with incomplete
markets and portfolio choice can be estimated in state space using a Bayesian approach. To …

Nonlinear household earnings dynamics, self-insurance, and welfare

M De Nardi, G Fella, G Paz-Pardo - Journal of the European …, 2020 - academic.oup.com
Earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with
heterogeneous agents. This holds for individual-pre-tax and household-post-tax earnings …

Optimal automatic stabilizers

A McKay, R Reis - The Review of Economic Studies, 2021 - academic.oup.com
Should the generosity of unemployment benefits and the progressivity of income taxes
depend on the presence of business cycles? This paper proposes a tractable model where …

Skewed business cycles

S Salgado, F Guvenen, N Bloom - 2019 - nber.org
Using firm-level panel data from the US Census Bureau and almost fifty other countries, we
show that the skewness of the growth rates of employment, sales, and productivity is …

Climbing and falling off the ladder: Asset pricing implications of labor market event risk

L Schmidt - Available at SSRN 2471342, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
Administrative earnings data reveal that households are exposed to large, countercyclical
idiosyncratic tail risks in labor earnings. I illustrate how these risks affect asset prices within …