We propose a simple modification of Hamilton's time series filter that yields reliable and
economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 …

Employment and real output are projected to grow faster during the 2020–30 decade than in
previous projection periods. This expectation largely reflects growth associated with the …

Studies show that raising the minimum wage in a US state above the federal minimum wage
can reduce infant mortality rates in those states. Some states have raised their minimum …

Using a representative-household search and matching model with endogenous labor force
participation, we study the cyclicality of labor market transition rates between employment …

As part of its responsibility for producing baseline projections of the economy and the federal
budget, the Congressional Budget Office regularly produces estimates and projections of …

An article published in 2018 by JD Hamilton gained significant attention due to its
provocative title,“Why you should never use the Hodrick-Prescott filter.” Additionally, an …

REVISED MARCH 2019 Using a representative-household search and matching model with
endogenous labor force participation, we study the interactions between extensive-margin …

We document that labor force participation declines in the short run following a positive
technology shock. The countercyclical response of labor force participation to a technology …

This study examines the divergence and synchronicity of labor force participation rate
(LFPR) dynamics across the USA. Using a dynamic factor model with time-varying stochastic …

Hamilton (2017) criticises the HP filter because of three drawbacks (i. spurious cycles, ii. end-
of-sample bias, iii. ad hoc assumptions regarding the smoothing parameter) which …