Intermediate‐term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches
Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time
after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate‐term aftershock activity as …
after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate‐term aftershock activity as …
Probabilistic identification of earthquake clusters using rescaled nearest neighbour distance networks
Despite the widely recognized importance of the spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes,
there are few robust methods for identifying clusters of causally related earthquakes …
there are few robust methods for identifying clusters of causally related earthquakes …
Bayesian modeling of the temporal evolution of seismicity using the ETAS.inlabru package
The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic
sequences and underpins operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, it remains …
sequences and underpins operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, it remains …
Features of seismic sequences are similar in different crustal tectonic regions
A Stallone, W Marzocchi - Bulletin of the Seismological …, 2019 - pubs.geoscienceworld.org
We investigate the existence of possible differences in the earthquake clustering process in
three areas related to distinct tectonic regimes: Italy, southern California, and Japan. At first …
three areas related to distinct tectonic regimes: Italy, southern California, and Japan. At first …
A changepoint analysis of spatio-temporal point processes
This work introduces a Bayesian approach to detecting multiple unknown changepoints over
time in the inhomogeneous intensity of a spatio-temporal point process with spatial and …
time in the inhomogeneous intensity of a spatio-temporal point process with spatial and …
Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes
The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying
change in the global 'background'rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes …
change in the global 'background'rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes …
Probability distribution of forecasts based on the ETAS model
DS Harte - Geophysical Journal International, 2017 - academic.oup.com
Earthquake probability forecasts based on a point process model, which is defined with a
conditional intensity function (eg ETAS), are generally made by using the history of the …
conditional intensity function (eg ETAS), are generally made by using the history of the …
Bayesian modelling of the temporal evolution of seismicity using the ETAS. inlabru R-package
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic
sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains …
sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains …
Statistical method for early detection of changes in seismic rate associated with wastewater injections
It is well documented that wastewater disposal by underground injection can increase
seismic activity. However, it is challenging to predict whether and when this effect occurs, as …
seismic activity. However, it is challenging to predict whether and when this effect occurs, as …
Bayesian P-splines and advanced computing in R for a changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes
This work presents advanced computational aspects of a new method for changepoint
detection on spatio-temporal point process data. We summarize the methodology, based on …
detection on spatio-temporal point process data. We summarize the methodology, based on …