[HTML][HTML] Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa

CA Senior, JH Marsham, S Berthou… - Bulletin of the …, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
Pan-Africa convection-permitting regional climate model simulations have been performed
to study the impact of high resolution and the explicit representation of atmospheric moist …

African lightning and its relation to rainfall and climate change in a convection‐permitting model

DL Finney, JH Marsham, JM Wilkinson… - Geophysical …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Global climate models struggle to simulate both the convection and cloud ice fundamental to
lightning formation. We use the first convection‐permitting, future climate simulations for the …

[HTML][HTML] Extreme climatic events to intensify over the Lake Victoria Basin under global warming

OM Ogega, E Scoccimarro, H Misiani, J Mbugua - Scientific Reports, 2023 - nature.com
This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin,
East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in …

Combining CMIP data with a regional convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change

C Klein, LS Jackson, DJ Parker… - Environmental …, 2021 - iopscience.iop.org
Due to associated hydrological risks, there is an urgent need to provide plausible quantified
changes in future extreme rainfall rates. Convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations …

[HTML][HTML] Climate change impacts on extreme rainfall in Eastern Africa in a convection-permitting climate model

S Chapman, J Bacon, CE Birch, E Pope… - Journal of …, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes.
Understanding future changes in rainfall is necessary for adaptation planning. Eastern Africa …

[HTML][HTML] Circulation patterns associated with current and future rainfall over Ethiopia and South Sudan from a convection-permitting model

HO Misiani, DL Finney, ZT Segele, JH Marsham… - Atmosphere, 2020 - mdpi.com
Ethiopia and South Sudan contain several population centers and important ecosystems
that depend on July–August rainfall. Here we use two models to understand current and …

[HTML][HTML] Future changes in African heatwaves and their drivers at the convective scale

CE Birch, LS Jackson, DL Finney… - Journal of …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
The future change in dry and humid heatwaves is assessed in 10-yr pan-African convective-
scale (4.5 km) and parameterized convection (25 km) climate model simulations. Compared …

[HTML][HTML] The effect of explicit convection on climate change in the West African monsoon and central West African Sahel rainfall

LS Jackson, JH Marsham, DJ Parker… - Journal of …, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract The West African monsoon (WAM) is the dominant feature of West African climate
providing the majority of annual rainfall. Projections of future rainfall over the West African …

[HTML][HTML] Contrasting contributions of surface hydrological pathways in convection permitting and parameterised climate simulations over Africa and their feedbacks on …

SS Folwell, CM Taylor, RA Stratton - Climate Dynamics, 2022 - Springer
The partitioning of rainfall at the land surface into interception, infiltration and surface runoff
plays an important role in the water cycle as it controls the time scale at which water returns …

Future changes in the Indian Ocean Walker Circulation and links to Kenyan rainfall

JA King, R Washington - Journal of Geophysical Research …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
East Africa is vulnerable to hydroclimatic variability and change, and therefore reliable
projections of future rainfall are important for climate change adaptation planning. However …