We estimate non‐linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are
countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non‐fundamentalness due to fiscal …

This article discusses recent research on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy—the
theme of the 2018 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting. We …

We show that three factors combine to explain the mean magnitude of excess sensitivity
reported in studies estimating the consumption response to income changes: the use of …

Empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues
such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage …

Legislative and implementation lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news
arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place—time when …

In this paper we study the impact of an expansion in public spending in an economy
characterized by limited asset market participation and sticky wages. The flexible wage …

How do information flows influence business cycle dynamics in models with anticipated
(news shocks) and unanticipated innovations? To address this question, we show how …

We study fiscal foresight using state panel variation in job creation tax credits (JCTCs) and
their implementation lags. Using inverse probability weighting to address potential …

ABSTRACT News--or foresight--about future economic fundamentals can create rational
expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial …

We compare the multipliers of expected and unexpected fiscal shocks. In doing so, we
consider that the future path of fiscal policy is anticipated to some degree, and incorporate …