Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The
uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and …

The rational expectations hypothesis is a bedrock of modern macroeconomics. It is often
combined with a strong, complementary hypothesis that all data about the state of the …

This paper uses surveys to document CFO perspectives on corporate planning, investment,
capital structure, payout, and shareholder versus stakeholder focus. Comparing policy …

We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a
randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals' inflation …

We study a newly designed survey administered to a large panel of wealthy retail investors.
The survey elicits beliefs that are important for macroeconomics and finance, and matches …

This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an
empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents' partial …

Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming
expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual …

We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of
inflation expectations on firms' economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset …

ABSTRACT We revisit La Porta's finding that returns on stocks with the most optimistic
analyst long‐term earnings growth forecasts are lower than those on stocks with the most …

It surprised investors, who dumped stocks and brought the market index down by 500 points
on Monday. It surprised policymakers, who rushed to rescue other financial institutions after …