How do leaders communicate during domestic crises? We provide the first global analysis of
world leader communication on social media during social unrest. We develop a theory of …

Infectious disease outbreaks often have consequences beyond human health, including
concern among the population, economic instability, and sometimes violence. A warning …

As this book goes to press, the world is witnessing one of the deadliest civil wars in recent
decades. Now in its eighth year, the war in Syria has killed more than half a million people …

The logic of historical explanation obliges one to understand temporality as a moderator of
various effects on political outcomes. Temporal problems remain in the empirical analysis of …

We empirically test for the mechanisms underlying protest against the liberal international
economic order in a context where we can causally isolate the mobilizing role of relative …

We present a novel mathematical model of two adversarial forces in the vicinity of a non-
combatant population in order to explore the impact of each force pursuing specific decision …

Climate change stands to have a profound impact on human society, and on political and
other conflicts in particular. However, the existing literature on understanding the relation …

Terrorists and other transnational extremist groups are responsible for thousands of civilian
deaths. In confronting extremists, governments have relied heavily on threats, demands …

Abstract The 2020 Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS) Prediction Competition
challenged participants to produce predictive models of violent political conflict at high …

Event data contains information for descriptive, predictive and inferential statistical analysis
of political and social actions. The varied formats and large size of event datasets present …