Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro
area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that …

This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian
vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting …

* NIESR. E-mail: c. lenoel@ niesr. ac. uk. Thanks to Jagjit Chadha for helpful comments and
suggestions. We also thank Patricia Sanchez Juanino for compiling the database. Unless …

We examine the incremental value of news-based data relative to the FRED-MD economic
indicators for quantile predictions of employment, output, inflation, and consumer sentiment …

Accurately forecasting inflation is crucial for most economic decisions. For example, wage
bargaining has an infrequent nature and it relies on an accurate assessment of the inflation …

In recent decades, the collection and analysis of survey expectations for economic variables
has gained considerable attention. While some survey sources provide data back to the …

This study applies observations of individual predictions for the first three releases of the US
output growth rate to evaluate how applied judgment affects prediction efficiency and …

In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using a massive
number of time series on survey expectations obtained from the European Commission's …

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. We shall follow the
opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply …

Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts -
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