This paper first documents trends in employment rates and then reviews what is known
about the various factors that have been proposed to explain the decline in the overall …

The recent financial crisis and ensuing recession appear to have put the productive capacity
of the economy on a lower and shallower trajectory than the one that seemed to be in place …

The US labor force participation rate has declined since 2007, primarily because of
population aging and ongoing trends that preceded the Great Recession. The labor force …

This chapter provides an overview of and user's guide to dynamic factor models (DFMs),
their estimation, and their uses in empirical macroeconomics. It also surveys recent …

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the
predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging …

After 2004, measured growth in labor productivity and total factor productivity slowed. We
find little evidence that this slowdown arises from growing mismeasurement of the gains …

This paper uses US local areas as a laboratory to test for long-term impacts of the Great
Recession. In administrative longitudinal data, I estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage …

Secular stagnation on the supply side takes the form of a slow 1.6 percent annual growth
rate of US potential real GDP, roughly half the 3.1 percent annual growth rate of actual real …

We calibrate an overlapping-generations model with a rich demographic structure to
observed and projected changes in US population, family composition, life expectancy, and …

Abstract Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was
composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of …