Machine learning advances for time series forecasting

RP Masini, MC Medeiros… - Journal of economic …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning (ML) and
high‐dimensional models for time‐series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear …

Smooth transition autoregressive models—a survey of recent developments

D Dijk, T Teräsvirta, PH Franses - Econometric reviews, 2002 - Taylor & Francis
This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive
(STAR) time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for …

A multiple regime smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries

M McAleer, MC Medeiros - Journal of Econometrics, 2008 - Elsevier
In this paper we propose a flexible model to describe nonlinearities and long-range
dependence in time series dynamics. The new model is a multiple regime smooth transition …

Quarterly time-series forecasting with neural networks

GP Zhang, DM Kline - IEEE transactions on neural networks, 2007 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
Forecasting of time series that have seasonal and other variations remains an important
problem for forecasters. This paper presents a neural network (NN) approach to forecasting …

Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation

N Aslanidis, C Christiansen - Journal of Empirical Finance, 2012 - Elsevier
This paper explores the time variation in the stock–bond correlation using high-frequency
data. Gradual transitions between regimes of negative and positive stock–bond correlation …

Basis function matrix-based flexible coefficient autoregressive models: A framework for time series and nonlinear system modeling

GY Chen, M Gan, CLP Chen… - IEEE transactions on …, 2019 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
We propose, in this paper, a framework for time series and nonlinear system modeling,
called the basis function matrix-based flexible coefficient autoregressive (BFM-FCAR) …

Gradient radial basis function based varying-coefficient autoregressive model for nonlinear and nonstationary time series

M Gan, CLP Chen, HX Li, L Chen - IEEE Signal Processing …, 2014 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
We propose a gradient radial basis function based varying-coefficient autoregressive (GRBF-
AR) model for modeling and predicting time series that exhibit nonlinearity and …

Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data

AB Galvão - International Journal of Forecasting, 2013 - Elsevier
When assessing the predictive power of financial variables for economic activity,
researchers usually aggregate higher-frequency data before estimating a forecasting model …

An alternative approach to estimating demand: Neural network regression with conditional volatility for high frequency air passenger arrivals

MC Medeiros, M McAleer, D Slottje, V Ramos… - Journal of …, 2008 - Elsevier
In this paper we provide an alternative approach to analyze the demand for international
tourism in the Balearic Islands, Spain, by using a neural network model that incorporates …

Bayesian model uncertainty in smooth transition autoregressions

HF Lopes, E Salazar - Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we propose a fully Bayesian approach to the special class of nonlinear time‐
series models called the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model. Initially, a …