We present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track the sources of
systemic risk over time and to facilitate the development of preemptive policies to promote …

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES BUBBLES, CRISES, AND HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS
Wei Xiong Working Paper 18905 http://www.nber.org/papers/w1 Page 1 NBER WORKING …

We exploit variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-
term obligations with no change in short-term payments (“wealth”), and reducing short-term …

We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking
in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an inter-temporal …

This paper exploits the federal preemption of national banks in 2004 from local laws against
predatory lending to gauge the effect of the supply of credit on the real economy. First, the …

We evaluate the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that
provided intermediaries with sizable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. HAMP …

We document that contractual disclosures by intermediaries during the sale of mortgages
contained false information about the borrower's housing equity in 7–14% of loans. The rate …

This paper highlights the importance of middle-class and high-FICO borrowers for the
mortgage crisis. Contrary to popular belief, which focuses on subprime and poor borrowers …

Credit supply expansion boosts housing speculation and amplifies the housing cycle. The
surge in private-label mortgage securitization in 2003 fueled a large expansion in mortgage …

From the beginning of 2001 to its cyclical peak in April of 2006, the Standard and
Poor's/Case–Shiller Twenty City Composite Index rose by nearly 60 percent in real terms …