The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three
channels. An increase in longevity—or expectations thereof—puts downward pressure on …

One of the best-established empirical results in international economics is that bilateral trade
decreases with distance. Although well known, this result has not been systematically …

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key
macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970–2014. The …

We provide an overview of the recent developments of the literature on the determinants of
long-term capital flows, global imbalances, and valuation effects. We present the main …

Current account regressions show that when top income shares are added to the
comprehensive set of conventional explanatory variables used by the IMF, they predict …

This paper studies how demographic variation affects the aggregate household saving rate.
We focus on China because it is experiencing an historic demographic transition and has …

We show that in an open-economy OLG model, the interaction between growth differentials
and household credit constraints—more severe in fast-growing countries—can explain three …

Domestic factors, such as credit and preference shocks, can explain the negative correlation
between house prices and the current account in the US and several other countries before …

The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key
macroeconomic variables is estimated using a panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The …

The recent financial crisis is likely to have damaged the potential output of many countries
belonging to the euro area. Moreover, the heterogeneity in long‐run macroeconomic …