This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a
persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero …

The demographic transition can affect the equilibrium real interest rate through three
channels. An increase in longevity—or expectations thereof—puts downward pressure on …

We propose an overlapping generations New Keynesian model in which a permanent (or
very persistent) slump is possible without any self-correcting force to full employment. The …

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key
macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970–2014. The …

We develop the theory of price-level determination in a range of models using both ad hoc
policy rules and jointly optimal monetary and fiscal policies and discuss empirical issues that …

The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key
macroeconomic variables is estimated using a panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The …

We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on
inflation. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and …

Analytical and quantitative frameworks both at central banks and in academic research
generally embed the perspective that in normal times the essence of good policy can be …

The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as
background for its discussion of the Federal Reserve's review of monetary policy strategy …

Abstract The Great Recession and the subsequent European crisis may have long-lasting
effects on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and, hence, on macroeconomic …