We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population
aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining …

We study long-run correlations between safe real interest rates in the United States and over
30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is …

The downtrend in US interest rates over the past two decades may partly reflect a decline in
the longer-run equilibrium real rate of interest. We examine this issue using dynamic term …

We document a rise and fall of the natural interest rate (r*) for several advanced economies,
which starts increasing in the 1960's and peaks around the end of the 1980's. We reach this …

This paper employs a large-scale overlapping generation model quantifying that
demographics account for a decrease in the natural real interest rate of about 1.4 …

Interest rates have been falling since the mid-1980s while the return on capital has not. In a
calibrated OLG model with recursive preferences encompassing many of the “usual …

Demographic shifts, such as population ageing, have been suggested as possible
explanations for the past decade's low inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in a long …

Purpose What causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed
economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation …

Most euro area countries have entered an unprecedented ageing process: life expectancy
continues to rise and fertility rates have declined, while retirement age in the last twenty to …

We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic
preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r∗) …