The benchmark first and second editions of Comparing Democracies represented essential
guides to the global study of elections. Reflecting recent developments in the field, this …

From the 1970s onwards, a wide range of forecasting techniques have been developed in
the literature on electoral forecasting. However, these models have primarily been applied in …

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary
seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures …

This paper explores the relationship between campaign news and vote intentions, drawing
on manual content analyses from the 2004 and 2006 Canadian federal elections. The …

The media's coverage of elections is dominated by “horserace journalism”: journalism that
focuses on poll results and relative party standings, rather than, for instance, substantive …

Little is known about the evolution of electoral sentiment over B ritish election cycles. How
does party support converge on the eventual election outcome? Do preferences evolve in a …

If late-campaign polls are to be used as forecasts, it is important to ask, how well do the polls
do and why are some polls better forecasts than others? We analytically compare alternative …

The purpose of this article is to propose a method to minimize the difference between
electoral predictions and electoral results. It builds on findings that stem from established …

Forecasting a presidential election's outcome is a long-standing topic in statistics and
political science. However, a lack of historical data and a complex multiparty political system …

The media's faith in polls... is symbolized by a little number that accompanies every major
poll... It encapsulates all the uncertainty about a poll's veracity and rolls it into a tiny ball that …