Different components of cognitive-behavioral therapy affect specific cognitive mechanisms

A Norbury, TU Hauser, SM Fleming, RJ Dolan… - Science …, 2024 - science.org
Psychological therapies are among the most effective treatments for common mental health
problems—however, we still know relatively little about how exactly they improve symptoms …

Some models are useful, but how do we know which ones? Towards a unified Bayesian model taxonomy

PC Bürkner, M Scholz, ST Radev - Statistic Surveys, 2023 - projecteuclid.org
Probabilistic (Bayesian) modeling has experienced a surge of applications in almost all
quantitative sciences and industrial areas. This development is driven by a combination of …

Robust and efficient projection predictive inference

Y McLatchie, S Rögnvaldsson, F Weber… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
The concepts of Bayesian prediction, model comparison, and model selection have
developed significantly over the last decade. As a result, the Bayesian community has …

A scalable and transferable approach to combining emerging conservation technologies to identify biodiversity change after large disturbances

CM Wood, J Socolar, S Kahl, MZ Peery… - Journal of Applied …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
Ecological disturbances are becoming more extensive and intensive globally, a trend
exemplified by 'megafires' and industrial deforestation, which cause widespread losses of …

Opaque prior distributions in Bayesian latent variable models

EC Merkle, O Ariyo, SD Winter… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution
that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These …

Gaussian distributional structural equation models: A framework for modeling latent heteroscedasticity

L Fazio, PC Bürkner - arXiv preprint arXiv:2404.14124, 2024 - arxiv.org
Accounting for the complexity of psychological theories requires methods that can predict
not only changes in the means of latent variables--such as personality factors, creativity, or …

The tenets of quantile-based inference in Bayesian models

D Perepolkin, B Goodrich, U Sahlin - Computational Statistics & Data …, 2023 - Elsevier
Bayesian inference can be extended to probability distributions defined in terms of their
inverse distribution function, ie their quantile function. This applies to both prior and …

Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Surrogate-based Bayesian Inference

P Reiser, JE Aguilar, A Guthke, PC Bürkner - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Surrogate models are statistical or conceptual approximations for more complex simulation
models. In this context, it is crucial to propagate the uncertainty induced by limited simulation …

The Seven-parameter Diffusion Model: an Implementation in Stan for Bayesian Analyses

F Henrich, R Hartmann, V Pratz, A Voss… - Behavior Research …, 2024 - Springer
Diffusion models have been widely used to obtain information about cognitive processes
from the analysis of responses and response-time data in two-alternative forced-choice …

posteriordb: Testing, Benchmarking and Developing Bayesian Inference Algorithms

M Magnusson, J Torgander, PC Bürkner… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2024 - arxiv.org
The generality and robustness of inference algorithms is critical to the success of widely
used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing. jl. When …