[HTML][HTML] Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
[HTML][HTML] The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Abstract Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
[HTML][HTML] Scenario Design for Infectious Disease Projections: Integrating Concepts from Decision Analysis and Experimental Design
Across many fields, scenario modeling has become an important tool for exploring long-term
projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties …
projections and how they might depend on potential interventions and critical uncertainties …
[HTML][HTML] Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the
complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an …
complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an …
[HTML][HTML] Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission
The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria
transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal …
transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal …
Combining models to generate a consensus effective reproduction number R for the COVID-19 epidemic status in England
H Manley, J Park, L Bevan… - Epidemiology & …, 2024 - cambridge.org
Accepted Manuscript Page 1 This is an Accepted Manuscript for Epidemiology & Infection.
Subject to change during the editing and production process. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000347 …
Subject to change during the editing and production process. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000347 …
[HTML][HTML] When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting
E Howerton, WJM Probert, MC Runge, C Viboud… - Epidemics, 2024 - Elsevier
Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious
disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper …
disease threats. However, different models can provide differing results, which can hamper …
[HTML][HTML] Agent-based modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove a widespread, often uncoordinated effort by
research groups to develop mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 to study its spread and …
research groups to develop mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 to study its spread and …
[HTML][HTML] Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak
Over the past several years, the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has led to
multiple waves of increased COVID-19 incidence. When the Omicron variant emerged, there …
multiple waves of increased COVID-19 incidence. When the Omicron variant emerged, there …
Estimating treatment effects using costly simulation samples from a population-scale model of opioid use disorder
AA Ahmed, MA Rahimian… - 2023 IEEE EMBS …, 2023 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
Large-scale models require substantial computational resources for analysis and studying
treatment conditions. Specifically, estimating treatment effects using simulations may require …
treatment conditions. Specifically, estimating treatment effects using simulations may require …