Are election polling misses becoming more prevalent? Are they more likely in some contexts
than others? Here we undertake an over-time and cross-national assessment of prediction …

How do voter preferences come into focus over the electoral cycle in different countries? Do
they evolve in patterned ways? Does the evolution vary across countries? This article …

We consider two criteria for evaluating election forecasts: accuracy (precision) and lead
(distance from the event), specifically the trade-off between the two in poll-based forecasts …

Election-oriented elites are expected to emphasize issues on which their party possesses
'issue ownership'during campaigns. This article extends those theories to the content of …

We study electoral campaigns over the long run, through the lens of their spending. In
particular, we ask whether changing media technologies and electoral environments …

Quantifying uncertainty is important to establishing the significance of comparisons, to
making predictions with known confidence, and to identifying priorities for investment …

Popular consent is an essential element for success and stability of democracies. Research
has repeatedly demonstrated that “electoral winners”(ie voters casting a ballot for …

Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention
polls? The authors address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British …

Traditionally, social science researchers have relied on surveys to produce population-level
estimates of public opinion and behavior. However, surveys are not always feasible, and …

This paper uses analyses of commercial polls alongside content-analytic measures of
sentiment in the content of nine newspapers to explore the relationship between voter …