Timely monitoring GDP-at-risk and tracing economic downside risk sources can help
establish effective risk warning and prevention systems. This study constructs a probability …

Purpose This study aims to investigate the influences of global uncertainty indicators
volatility on the domestic socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability in a sample of 54 …

We analyse global aggregate and segment-specific cycles across credit, house prices,
equity prices, and interest rates in 17 economies over 130 years using a time-varying …

While previous research has thoroughly examined the influence of natural resources and
economic growth on a global scale, there is a noticeable gap in the literature regarding …

We conduct an open search of predictors of global real economic activity. To this end, we
apply a predictive quantile regression framework, using four alternative proxies of global …

We estimate the causal effects of macroprudential policies on the entire distribution of GDP
growth for advanced European economies using a narrative-identification strategy in a …

I build a model in which speculators unwind carry trades and hedgers fly to relatively liquid
US Treasuries during global financial disasters. The net effect of these flows produces an …

The impact of financial conditions on Chinese macroeconomic activities has recently
received considerable attention. This paper utilizes a constructed Chinese financial …

We build a semi-structural New Keynesian model to study the drivers of macroeconomic tail
risk ('GDP-at-Risk'). Our model features three key nonlinearities: an effective lower bound on …

This paper empirically examines the extent to which prudential policies can help to reduce
the macro-financial spillover effects of foreign monetary policy for all 28 EU countries. Using …