In 2019 when inflation was low and stable, we compared people's direct estimates of
inflation with indirect estimates obtained by averaging their estimates of price changes in all …

Time series are often presented graphically, and forecasters often judgmentally extrapolate
graphically presented data. However, graphs come in many different formats: here, we …

Experts are expected to make well‐calibrated judgments within their field, yet a voluminous
literature demonstrates miscalibration in human judgment. Calibration training aimed at …

Context effects are known to affect responses to surveys. We report effects of information
and task contexts in surveys of inflation expectations. Information context refers to contextual …

Introduction Funders must make difficult decisions about which squared treatments to
prioritize for randomized trials. Earlier research suggests that experts have no ability to …

While there are many competing accounts and scales of intellectual humility, philosophers
and psychologists are generally united in treating it as an epistemically beneficial …

There are three main ways in which judgmental predictions are expressed: point forecasts;
interval forecasts; probability density forecasts. Do these approaches differ solely in terms of …

In this study, we plan to answer the fundamental question of what factors affect the human
utility function and decision-making strategy. The utility function is an internally assigned …

Verhaltensaspekte in einem operativen Kontext und insbesondere auch in Modellen für
operative Problemstellungen blieben in der Vergangenheit weitestgehend unberücksichtigt …

In this thesis, laypeople's judgmental forecasting about inflation is reviewed and
experimentally explored in six chapters. Inflation is defined as the Consumer Price Index …