The physics of climate variability and climate change

M Ghil, V Lucarini - Reviews of Modern Physics, 2020 - APS
The climate is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex, and heterogeneous system that is
out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of …

Data-driven non-Markovian closure models

D Kondrashov, MD Chekroun, M Ghil - Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2015 - Elsevier
This paper has two interrelated foci:(i) obtaining stable and efficient data-driven closure
models by using a multivariate time series of partial observations from a large-dimensional …

Improving statistical prediction and revealing nonlinearity of ENSO using observations of ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific

A Seleznev, D Mukhin - Climate Dynamics, 2023 - Springer
It is well-known that the upper ocean heat content (OHC) variability in the tropical Pacific
contains valuable information about dynamics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here …

Russian climate research in 2015–2018

II Mokhov - Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2020 - Springer
The results of Russian studies of climate and its changes (published in 2015–2018) are
presented using a review prepared for the National Report on Meteorology and Atmospheric …

ENSO dynamics, trends, and prediction using machine learning

JD Rojo Hernández, ÓJ Mesa… - Weather and …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has global effects on the hydrological cycle,
agriculture, ecosystems, health, and society. We present a novel nonhomogeneous hidden …

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

A Gavrilov, A Seleznev, D Mukhin, E Loskutov… - Climate Dynamics, 2019 - Springer
A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is
proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the …

Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model

S Pierini, M Ghil - Scientific reports, 2021 - nature.com
Numerous systems in the climate sciences and elsewhere are excitable, exhibiting
coexistence of and transitions between a basic and an excited state. We examine the role of …

Contributions to surface air temperature trends estimated from climate time series: Medium-term causalities

II Mokhov, DA Smirnov - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of …, 2022 - pubs.aip.org
Contributions of various natural and anthropogenic factors to trends of surface air
temperatures at different latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres on various …

Generative formalism of causality quantifiers for processes

DA Smirnov - Physical Review E, 2022 - APS
The concept of dynamical causal effect (DCE) is generalized and equipped with a formalism
which allows one to formulate in a unified manner and interrelate a variety of causality …

[HTML][HTML] Predicting critical transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially dependent models

D Mukhin, D Kondrashov, E Loskutov… - Journal of …, 2015 - journals.ametsoc.org
Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models in:
Journal of Climate Volume 28 Issue 5 (2015) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation …