This article explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil
and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output …

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent
driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of …

Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycles, so the ability to
generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that …

This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations
regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they …

We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of
business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984 to 2017, we …

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean
against house-price and credit cycles. We rely on a model that features Borrowers and …

This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning.
Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in …

This paper evaluates the extent to which a DSGE model can account for the impact of tax
policy shocks. We estimate the response of macroeconomic aggregates to anticipated and …

This paper develops a model of investment decisions in which uncertainty about a one-time
change in tax policy induces the firm to temporarily stop investing—to adopt a wait-and-see …

Data for OECD countries document: 1. imports and exports are about three times as volatile
as GDP; 2. imports and exports are pro-cyclical, and positively correlated with each other; 3 …