Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision

M Leutbecher, SJ Lock, P Ollinaho… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and
model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties …

Ocean reanalyses: recent advances and unsolved challenges

A Storto, A Alvera-Azcárate, MA Balmaseda… - Frontiers in Marine …, 2019 - frontiersin.org
Ocean reanalyses combine ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes, and observations
using data assimilation to give a four-dimensional description of the ocean. Metrics …

Quality assessment of the TOPAZ4 reanalysis in the Arctic over the period 1991–2013

J Xie, L Bertino, F Counillon, KA Lisæter… - Ocean Science, 2017 - os.copernicus.org
Long dynamical atmospheric reanalyses are widely used for climate studies, but data-
assimilative reanalyses of ocean and sea ice in the Arctic are less common. TOPAZ4 is a …

Super-resolution data assimilation

S Barthélémy, J Brajard, L Bertino, F Counillon - Ocean Dynamics, 2022 - Springer
Increasing model resolution can improve the performance of a data assimilation system
because it reduces model error, the system can more optimally use high-resolution …

Revision of the stochastically perturbed parametrisations model uncertainty scheme in the integrated forecasting system

STK Lang, SJ Lock, M Leutbecher… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisations scheme (SPP) represents model
uncertainty in numerical weather prediction by introducing stochastic perturbations into the …

Impact of assimilating a merged sea-ice thickness from CryoSat-2 and SMOS in the Arctic reanalysis

J Xie, F Counillon, L Bertino - The Cryosphere, 2018 - tc.copernicus.org
Accurately forecasting the sea-ice thickness (SIT) in the Arctic is a major challenge. The new
SIT product (referred to as CS2SMOS) merges measurements from the CryoSat-2 and …

Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic

F Counillon, N Keenlyside, T Toniazzo, S Koseki… - Climate Dynamics, 2021 - Springer
We investigate the impact of large climatological biases in the tropical Atlantic on reanalysis
and seasonal prediction performance using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model …

Introducing independent patterns into the stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies (SPPT) scheme

HM Christensen, SJ Lock, IM Moroz… - Quarterly Journal of …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
The Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme is used at
weather and climate forecasting centres worldwide to represent model uncertainty that …

Parametrization in weather and climate models

H Christensen, L Zanna - 2022 - ora.ox.ac.uk
Numerical computer models play a key role in Earth science. They are used to make
predictions on timescales ranging from short-range weather forecasts to multi-century …

Sea‐Ice Forecasts With an Upgraded AWI Coupled Prediction System

L Mu, L Nerger, J Streffing, Q Tang… - Journal of Advances …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
A new version of the AWI Coupled Prediction System is developed based on the Alfred
Wegener Institute Climate Model v3. 0. Both the ocean and the atmosphere models are …