Economists not only failed to anticipate the financial crisis; they may have contributed to it—
with risk and derivatives models that, through spurious precision and untested theoretical …

This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in
which the modeler simplifies an initially general model that adequately characterizes the …

Meeting the Paris Agreement's climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which
climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. We provide a global …

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model
uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are …

To evaluate the success of the realized policies we need to investigate the historical
relationships and assess the impacts of different drivers on the indicator being explored. In …

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the
conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a …

We analyze the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis to 415 country‐industry
equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained …

The uncertainty that researchers face in specifying their estimation model threatens the
validity of their inferences. In regression analyses of observational data, the'true …

This paper provides a survey and synthesis of econometric tools that have been employed
to study economic growth. While these tools range across a variety of statistical methods …

Environmental issues, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions, are humanity's most critical
issues. Emissions released by oil-producing countries is not small. This is because these …