We propose a novel identification scheme for a nontechnology business cycle shock, which
we label “sentiment”. This is a shock orthogonal to identified surprise and news TFP shocks …

This article aims to examine the influence of international trade wars on the majority of stock
market operations, both directly and indirectly affected. The impact of the trade war on the …

We find that variation in expected US productivity explains more than half of G6 exchange
rate fluctuations vis-a-vis the USD. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and …

The focus of this paper is on news-driven business cycles in small open economies. We
make two significant contributions. First, we develop a small open economy model where …

Does international trade affect the environment while promoting economic growth? This
question has received increasing attention in recent years. Previous research on the trade …

We uncover the major drivers of macro aggregates and the real exchange rate at business
cycle frequencies in Group of Seven countries. The estimated drivers of key macro variables …

The paper presents new empirical evidence on the international effects of surprise and
anticipated technology shocks in the US. We employ the proxy-instrumental variable …

This study shows the influence of the US and China, the world's manufacturing
powerhouses, over the performance of the manufacturing sector of G20 countries from the …

This paper provides new evidence that bouts of optimism and pessimism are an important
source of US business cycles, using the identification schemes based on sign restrictions …

Traditionally identified monetary shocks in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model
typically result in long-lasting effects on output and total factor productivity (TFP). In this …