What is certain about uncertainty?

D Cascaldi-Garcia, C Sarisoy, JM Londono… - Journal of Economic …, 2023 - aeaweb.org
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures of uncertainty, risk, and
volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, their …

Monetary policy uncertainty and the response of the yield curve to policy shocks

P Tillmann - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
This paper studies the nonlinear response of the term structure of interest rates to monetary
policy shocks and presents a new stylized fact. We show that uncertainty about monetary …

The effects of US monetary policy uncertainty shock on international equity markets

RL Aor, AA Salisu, IJ Okpe - Annals of Financial Economics, 2021 - World Scientific
In this study, we quantify the propagation effects of the US monetary policy uncertainty
(MPU) shock on real equity prices of 33 advanced and emerging countries over the period …

Unveiling the causal interactions among the US monetary policy uncertainty, exchange market pressure, and FDI‐flows in large emerging market economies

IO Olanipekun… - Journal of Public Affairs, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
This study shows how exchange market pressure, FDI inflow, and FDI outflow in large
emerging market economies interact with monetary policy uncertainty from the United States …

Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations

G Arce‐Alfaro, B Blagov - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Do inflation expectations react to changes in the volatility of monetary policy? They have, but
only until the global financial crisis. This paper investigates whether increasing the …

Measuring Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Its Effects on the Economy: The Case of Turkey

S Cevik, Y Erduman - Eastern European Economics, 2020 - Taylor & Francis
In this study, we present new empirical insights for monetary policy uncertainty perception in
Turkey by introducing a set of new measures. We construct a news-based measure based …

Understanding macroeconomic disagreement

J Sheen, BZ Wang - Available at SSRN 3364891, 2019 - papers.ssrn.com
We propose a new measure of macroeconomic disagreement, using dispersions of
forecasts of a wide range of financial, activity and inflation variables from both household …

[PDF][PDF] Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Does it Matter for Thailand?

T Apaitan, P Luangaram, P Manopimoke - PIER Discussion Papers, 2020 - pier.or.th
This paper investigates the role of domestic and foreign uncertainty shocks for
macroeconomic dynamics in Thailand. We construct and compare various indicators of …

Markov Switching Rationality

F Odendahl, B Rossi, T Sekhposyan - Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park …, 2023 - emerald.com
The authors propose novel tests for the detection of Markov switching deviations from
forecast rationality. Existing forecast rationality tests either focus on constant deviations from …

Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?

E Castelnuovo, G Lim… - Australian Economic …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
This article discusses macroeconomic policies in a low interest rate environment, the central
theme of the 2017 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting. After …