People's perceptions about the size of minority groups in social networks can be biased,
often showing systematic over-or underestimation. These social perception biases are often …

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate
methods for forecasting US presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly …

Many studies report the “wonders of aggregation” and that groups (often) yield better
decisions than individuals. Can this “wisdom of crowds”-effect be used to forecast elections …

Increasingly, professional forecasters rely on citizen forecasts when predicting election
results. Following this approach, forecasters predict the winning party to be the one which …

Most citizens correctly forecast which party will win a given election, and such forecasts
usually have a higher level of accuracy than voter intention polls. How do citizens do it? We …

Objective This article investigates the extent to which perceptions of the competitive context
of mayoral elections reflect actual levels of competition and how that relationship is shaped …

Forecasting election results has been a highly attractive activity among political and social
scientists. Different forecasting methods have been proposed, but those based on public …

As long as there have been elections people have tried to predict their results and, over the
past three decades, researchers have made considerable progress in developing and …

The 2016 US Presidential Election provided an opportunity to examine how political
candidates' use of social media can affect voting intentions. This study considers how …

Partisan preferences usually stand out as the major driving force behind voters' expectations
about election outcomes. Apart from partisan preferences, however, purely individual‐level …