[HTML][HTML] Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

ME Kretzschmar, B Ashby, E Fearon, CE Overton… - Epidemics, 2022 - Elsevier
Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different
non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has …

Empirical evidence on the efficiency of backward contact tracing in COVID-19

J Raymenants, C Geenen, J Thibaut, K Nelissen… - Nature …, 2022 - nature.com
Standard contact tracing practice for COVID-19 is to identify persons exposed to an infected
person during the contagious period, assumed to start two days before symptom onset or …

The importance of the generation interval in investigating dynamics and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants

SW Park, BM Bolker, S Funk… - Journal of The …, 2022 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Inferring the relative strength (ie the ratio of reproduction numbers) and relative speed (ie the
difference between growth rates) of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to predicting and …

Hyperbolic compartmental models for epidemic spread on networks with uncertain data: application to the emergence of Covid-19 in Italy

G Bertaglia, L Pareschi - … Models and Methods in Applied Sciences, 2021 - World Scientific
The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in
modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model …

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks

C Geenen, J Raymenants, S Gorissen… - Nature …, 2023 - nature.com
To complement labour-intensive conventional contact tracing, digital proximity tracing was
implemented widely during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the privacy-centred design …

[HTML][HTML] Modelling: understanding pandemics and how to control them

G Marion, L Hadley, V Isham, D Mollison… - Epidemics, 2022 - Elsevier
New disease challenges, societal demands and better or novel types of data, drive
innovations in the structure, formulation and analysis of epidemic models. Innovations in …

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 variant fitness and the impact of interventions in England using statistical and geo-spatial agent-based models

R Hinch, J Panovska-Griffiths… - … of the Royal …, 2022 - royalsocietypublishing.org
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been extended by the evolution of more transmissible viral
variants. In autumn 2020, the B. 1.177 lineage became the dominant variant in England …

A mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine under limited capacities

J Heidecke, J Fuhrmann, MV Barbarossa - Plos one, 2024 - journals.plos.org
Diagnostic testing followed by isolation of identified cases with subsequent tracing and
quarantine of close contacts—often referred to as test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine (TTIQ) …

Equations with infinite delay: pseudospectral discretization for numerical stability and bifurcation in an abstract framework

F Scarabel, R Vermiglio - SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis, 2024 - SIAM
We consider nonlinear delay differential and renewal equations with infinite delay. We
extend the work of Gyllenberg et al.[Appl. Math. Comput., 333 (2018), pp. 490–505] by …

Modelling preventive measures and their effect on generation times in emerging epidemics

M Favero, G Scalia Tomba… - Journal of The Royal …, 2022 - royalsocietypublishing.org
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures,
such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening …