Belief elicitation in the laboratory
A Schotter, I Trevino - Annu. Rev. Econ., 2014 - annualreviews.org
One constraint we face as economists is not being able to observe all the relevant variables
required to test our theories or make policy prescriptions. Laboratory techniques allow us to …
required to test our theories or make policy prescriptions. Laboratory techniques allow us to …
Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs
G Charness, U Gneezy, V Rasocha - Journal of Economic Behavior & …, 2021 - Elsevier
Expectations are a critical factor in determining actions in a great variety of economic
interactions. Hence, being able to measure beliefs is important in many economic …
interactions. Hence, being able to measure beliefs is important in many economic …
Survey experiments on economic expectations
In this chapter, we discuss field experiments in surveys that are conducted with the purpose
of learning about expectation formation and the link between expectations and behavior. We …
of learning about expectation formation and the link between expectations and behavior. We …
Incentives in experiments: A theoretical analysis
Y Azrieli, CP Chambers… - Journal of Political …, 2018 - journals.uchicago.edu
Experimental economists currently lack a convention for how to pay subjects in experiments
with multiple tasks. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing this question …
with multiple tasks. We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing this question …
An overview of applications of proper scoring rules
A Carvalho - Decision Analysis, 2016 - pubsonline.informs.org
We present a study on the evolution of publications about applications of proper scoring
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
rules. Specifically, we consider articles reporting the use of proper scoring rules when either …
Good news and bad news are still news: Experimental evidence on belief updating
A Coutts - Experimental Economics, 2019 - Springer
Bayesian updating remains the benchmark for dynamic modeling under uncertainty within
economics. Recent theory and evidence suggest individuals may process information …
economics. Recent theory and evidence suggest individuals may process information …
The binarized scoring rule
We introduce a simple method for constructing a scoring rule to elicit an agent's belief about
a random variable that is incentive compatible irrespective of her risk-preference. The agent …
a random variable that is incentive compatible irrespective of her risk-preference. The agent …
A penny for your thoughts: A survey of methods for eliciting beliefs
Incentivized methods for eliciting subjective probabilities in economic experiments present
the subject with risky choices that encourage truthful reporting. We discuss the most …
the subject with risky choices that encourage truthful reporting. We discuss the most …
The price is right: Updating inflation expectations in a randomized price information experiment
O Armantier, S Nelson, G Topa… - Review of Economics …, 2016 - direct.mit.edu
Using a unique, randomized information experiment embedded in a survey, this paper
investigates how consumers' inflation expectations respond to new information. We find that …
investigates how consumers' inflation expectations respond to new information. We find that …
How do college students respond to public information about earnings?
Expectations are important determinants of decisions made under uncertainty, and if
individuals' expectations are biased, they can make suboptimal choices. This paper uses a …
individuals' expectations are biased, they can make suboptimal choices. This paper uses a …