This paper utilizes Greenbook forecasts of consumption and income to estimate expected
asset returns through a present value model of consumption. The study finds that, despite …

We empirically revisit the crowding-in effect of government spending on private consumption
based on rolling windows of US data. Results show that in earlier samples government …

Using an intertemporal consumption model with nondurable and durable goods, we identify
a break in the long‐run equilibrium relationship between their relative expenditure and …

This paper proposes a score-driven model for filtering time-varying causal parameters
through the use of instrumental variables. In the presence of suitable instruments, we show …

A theory in which the timing of consumer expectation adjustments is endogenously state-
dependent and stochastic is proposed. These expectation adjustments generate highly …