Machine learning advances for time series forecasting

RP Masini, MC Medeiros… - Journal of economic …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning (ML) and
high‐dimensional models for time‐series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear …

Bridging factor and sparse models

J Fan, RP Masini, MC Medeiros - The Annals of Statistics, 2023 - projecteuclid.org
Bridging factor and sparse models Page 1 The Annals of Statistics 2023, Vol. 51, No. 4,
1692–1717 https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOS2304 © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2023 …

[HTML][HTML] Lasso inference for high-dimensional time series

R Adamek, S Smeekes, I Wilms - Journal of Econometrics, 2023 - Elsevier
In this paper we develop valid inference for high-dimensional time series. We extend the
desparsified lasso to a time series setting under Near-Epoch Dependence (NED) …

Granger causality testing in high-dimensional VARs: A post-double-selection procedure

A Hecq, L Margaritella… - Journal of Financial …, 2023 - academic.oup.com
We develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional (HD) vector autoregressive
(VAR) models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test retaining the …

Are latent factor regression and sparse regression adequate?

J Fan, Z Lou, M Yu - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract We propose the Factor Augmented (sparse linear) Regression Model (FARM) that
not only admits both the latent factor regression and sparse linear regression as special …

FNETS: Factor-adjusted network estimation and forecasting for high-dimensional time series

M Barigozzi, H Cho, D Owens - Journal of Business & Economic …, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
We propose FNETS, a methodology for network estimation and forecasting of high-
dimensional time series exhibiting strong serial-and cross-sectional correlations. We …

Local projection inference in high dimensions

R Adamek, S Smeekes, I Wilms - The Econometrics Journal, 2024 - academic.oup.com
In this paper, we estimate impulse responses by local projections in high-dimensional
settings. We use the desparsified (de-biased) lasso to estimate the high-dimensional local …

Penalized Bayesian Approach-Based Variable Selection for Economic Forecasting

A Pacifico, D Pilone - Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2024 - mdpi.com
This paper proposes a penalized Bayesian computational algorithm as an improvement to
the LASSO approach for economic forecasting in multivariate time series. Methodologically …

Benign overfitting in time series linear model with over-parameterization

S Nakakita, M Imaizumi - arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.08369, 2022 - arxiv.org
The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of
statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over …

Statistical inference of high-dimensional vector autoregressive time series with non-iid innovations

Y Zhang - arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.07364, 2023 - arxiv.org
Independent or iid innovations is an essential assumption in the literature for analyzing a
vector time series. However, this assumption is either too restrictive for a real-life time series …