Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity
JW Vaupel, F Villavicencio… - Proceedings of the …, 2021 - National Acad Sciences
This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human
longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data …
longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data …
[HTML][HTML] Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality
U Basellini, CG Camarda, H Booth - International Journal of Forecasting, 2023 - Elsevier
The introduction of the Lee–Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality
forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method …
forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method …
Mortality forecasting at age 65 and above: an age-specific evaluation of the Lee-Carter model
MP Bergeron-Boucher, S Kjærgaard - Scandinavian Actuarial …, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
The Lee-Carter (LC) model has been recurrently used to forecast mortality, including by
national statistical offices. This model has many advantages, but tends to underpredict life …
national statistical offices. This model has many advantages, but tends to underpredict life …
Short-term forecasts of expected deaths
We introduce a method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating
it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not …
it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not …
A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality
MP Bergeron-Boucher, P Vázquez-Castillo… - Population …, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages to forecasting mortality with
indicators other than age-specific death rates. The mean, median, and modal ages at death …
indicators other than age-specific death rates. The mean, median, and modal ages at death …
[PDF][PDF] A modal age at death approach to forecasting mortality
Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages in forecasting mortality with
other indicators than death rates. In particular, the age-at-death distribution provides readily …
other indicators than death rates. In particular, the age-at-death distribution provides readily …
Forecasting Inequalities in Survival to Retirement Age by Socioeconomic Status in Denmark and Sweden
C Strozza, MP Bergeron-Boucher, J Callaway… - European Journal of …, 2024 - Springer
Abstract In Denmark and Sweden, statutory retirement age is indexed to life expectancy to
account for mortality improvements in their populations. However, mortality improvements …
account for mortality improvements in their populations. However, mortality improvements …
[PDF][PDF] Modeling and forecasting healthy life expectancy with Compositional Data Analysis
MP Bergeron-Boucher, C Strozza… - SocArXiv …, 2022 - portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk
Will the extra years of life gained by the increase in life expectancy be lived in good or poor
health? As forecasts support social, economic and medical decisions, as well as individuals' …
health? As forecasts support social, economic and medical decisions, as well as individuals' …
A modal age at death approach to forecasting mortality
MPB Boucher, P Vázquez-Castillo, T Missov - osf.io
Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages in forecasting mortality with
other indicators than death rates. In particular, the age-at-death distribution provides readily …
other indicators than death rates. In particular, the age-at-death distribution provides readily …
Modeling and forecasting healthy life expectancy with Compositional Data Analysis
Will the extra years of life gained by the increase in life expectancy be lived in good or poor
health? As forecasts support social, economic and medical decisions, as well as individuals' …
health? As forecasts support social, economic and medical decisions, as well as individuals' …