ENSO prediction

ML L'Heureux, AFZ Levine, M Newman… - El Niño Southern …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Summary The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean‐atmosphere
phenomenon of variability that is a leading source of seasonal climate prediction skill across …

Seasonal predictability of global and North American coastal sea surface temperature and height anomalies

SI Shin, M Newman - Geophysical Research Letters, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract A Linear Inverse Model (LIM) is constructed to evaluate predictability of seasonal
sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies over the ice‐free …

The role of seasonality and the ENSO mode in central and east Pacific ENSO growth and evolution

DJ Vimont, M Newman, DS Battisti… - Journal of Climate, 2022 - journals.ametsoc.org
A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of
tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central …

Financial markets value skillful forecasts of seasonal climate

D Lemoine, S Kapnick - Nature Communications, 2024 - nature.com
Scientific agencies spend substantial sums producing and improving forecasts of seasonal
climate, but they do so without much information about these forecasts' value in practice …

Observed El Niño‐La Niña asymmetry in a linear model

C Martinez‐Villalobos, M Newman… - Geophysical …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
Previous studies indicate an asymmetry in the amplitude and persistence of El Niño (EN)
and La Niña (LN) events. We show that this observed EN‐LN asymmetry can be captured …

Extreme coastal El Niño events are tightly linked to the development of the Pacific Meridional Modes

C Martinez-Villalobos, B Dewitte… - npj Climate and …, 2024 - nature.com
Abstract Coastal El Niño events—marine heatwaves instances in the far eastern Tropical
Pacific during otherwise basin-scale neutral or cold conditions—can have severe societal …

Effects of semistochastic westerly wind bursts on ENSO predictability

X Tan, Y Tang, T Lian, S Zhang, T Liu… - Geophysical Research …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) occurring over the tropical Pacific play an important role on El
Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Currently, climate models have significant …

A regime view of ENSO flavors through clustering in CMIP6 models

P Vaittinada Ayar, DS Battisti, C Li, M King… - Earth's …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) flavors in the tropical Pacific are studied from
a regime perspective. Five recurring spatial patterns or regimes characterizing the diversity …

The ENSO-induced south pacific meridional mode

B Dewitte, E Concha, D Saavedra, O Pizarro… - Frontiers in …, 2023 - frontiersin.org
Previous studies have investigated the role of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), a climate
mode of the mid-latitudes in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, in favoring the …

A linear inverse model of tropical and South Pacific climate variability: optimal structure and stochastic forcing

J Lou, TJ O'Kane, NJ Holbrook - Journal of Climate, 2021 - journals.ametsoc.org
A stochastically forced linear inverse model (LIM) of the combined modes of variability from
the tropical and South Pacific Oceans is used to investigate the linear growth of optimal …