The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast
exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations …

Background In terms of global forest product market developments, the twenty-first century
has been in many ways very different from the twentieth century—striking structural changes …

Motivated by the importance of geopolitical risk and its possible predictive power for oil
volatility, this paper aims to quantitatively investigate the role of geopolitical risk (GPR) …

Summary We move beyond Is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting? by
adding the how. The current forecasting literature has focused on matching specific …

We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by
forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on US equity …

The Diebold–Mariano (DM) test was intended for comparing forecasts; it has been, and
remains, useful in that regard. The DM test was not intended for comparing models. Much of …

This chapter discusses recent developments in inflation forecasting. We perform a horse-
race among a large set of traditional and recently developed forecasting methods, and …

We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between
changes in the price of a country's major commodity export and changes in its nominal …

This article proposes new methodologies for evaluating economic models' out-of-sample
forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The …

The goal of this article is to evaluate the informational content of sentiment extracted from
news articles about the state of the economy. We propose a fine-grained aspect-based …