Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most
popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling …

" Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?" analyses the effectiveness and validity of applying
econometric methods to economic time series. The methodological dispute is long-standing …

This paper reconciles two widely used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield
starkly different results. The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition implies that a stochastic …

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV, drones) used as delivery vehicles have received
increasing attention due to their mobility and accessibility to remote areas. The purpose of …

Abstract The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on autoregressive models produces
estimates of the output gap that are strongly at odds with widely held beliefs about transitory …

The business cycle is a fundamental yet elusive concept in macroeconomics. In this paper,
we consider the problem of measuring the business cycle. First, we argue for the output-gap …

A study of business cycles does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of
growth cycles does. Major cyclical slowdowns and speedups deserve to be analyzed, but …

We study how firms allocate cash flow by estimating the cash-flow sensitivities of various
uses of cash flow. We decompose cash flow into a transitory and a permanent component …

We develop an empirical model to study the influence of global factors in driving trend
inflation and the inflation gap. We apply our model to 7 developed economies and 21 …

Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many
economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely …