This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

Publisher Summary The view that there are many costs associated with inflation, and
especially with high and variable rates of inflation, is widely held. Indeed, the governments …

How do individuals form expectations about future inflation? We propose that individuals
overweight inflation experienced during their lifetimes. This approach modifies existing …

A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face
information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms …

Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document
substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about …

The risk and return trade‐off, the cornerstone of modern asset pricing theory, is often of the
wrong sign. Our explanation is that high‐beta assets are prone to speculative overpricing …

Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain
events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against …

We define" consensus" as the degree of agreement among point predictions aimed at the
same target by different individuals and" uncertainty" as the diffuseness of the corresponding …

This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on term premia. I construct a panel of
zero-coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten industrialized countries and …

IT IS GENERALLY AGREED that the unpredictability of future inflation is a major component
of the welfare loss associated with inflation. Perfectly predicted inflation might induce some …