This paper argues for a careful (re) consideration of the expectations formation process and
a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic …

This paper demonstrates that neutral real interest rates would have declined by far more
than what has been observed in the industrial world and would in all likelihood be …

We argue that the economy of the industrialized world taken as a whole is currently–and for
the foreseeable future will remain–highly prone to secular stagnation. But for extraordinary …

This chapter reviews some of the academic literature that links nominal and real term
structures with the macroeconomy. The main conclusion is that none of our models is …

We provide empirical estimates of the effect of large‐scale asset purchases (LSAPs) on
longer term US Treasury yields within a framework that allows for several transmission …

This paper quantifies how variation in economic activity and inflation in the United States
influences the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in Treasury markets. We …

This chapter discusses recent developments in inflation forecasting. We perform a horse-
race among a large set of traditional and recently developed forecasting methods, and …

We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and their time variation
using a dynamic factor model. We identify the economic factors employing a semi structural …

We show that the price of a Treasury bond and an inflation‐swapped Treasury Inflation‐
Protected Securities (TIPS) issue exactly replicating the cash flows of the Treasury bond can …

This paper compares the effects of conventional monetary policy on real borrowing costs
with those of the unconventional measures employed after the target federal funds rate hit …