Uncertain judgements: eliciting experts' probabilities

A O'Hagan, CE Buck, A Daneshkhah, JR Eiser… - 2006 - books.google.com
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or
quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is …

Do moderators of the optimistic bias affect personal or target risk estimates? A review of the literature

M Helweg-Larsen, JA Shepperd - Personality and social …, 2001 - journals.sagepub.com
The optimistic bias is defined as judging one's own risk as less than the risk of others.
Researchers have identified numerous personal and situational factors that moderate the …

[图书][B] The psychology of happiness

M Argyle - 2013 - taylorfrancis.com
What is happiness? Why are some people happier than others? This new edition of The
Psychology of Happiness provides a comprehensive and up-to-date account of research …

Developing a national index of subjective wellbeing: The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index

RA Cummins, R Eckersley, J Pallant, J Van Vugt… - Social indicators …, 2003 - Springer
Abstract The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index has beendesigned as a new barometer of
Australians' satisfaction with their lives, and life inAustralia. It is based on, and develops …

Lake Wobegon be gone! The" below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments.

J Kruger - Journal of personality and social psychology, 1999 - psycnet.apa.org
Like the inhabitants of Garrison Keillor's (1985) fictional community of Lake Wobegon, most
people appear to believe that their skills and abilities are above average. A series of studies …

Unrealistic optimism: Present and future

ND Weinstein, WM Klein - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 1996 - Guilford Press
People tend to believe that they are better than others. This claim is firmly supported by the
large body of research that has investigated" self-serv ing" or" self-enhancing" biases (eg …

Risk perceptions related to SARS and avian influenza: theoretical foundations of current empirical research

A Leppin, AR Aro - International journal of behavioral medicine, 2009 - Springer
Background The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 and the subsequent
emergence of the H5N1 virus have highlighted the threat of a global pandemic influenza …

[图书][B] Risk and'the Other'

H Joffe - 1999 - books.google.com
Annotation From earthquakes to epidemics, AIDS to industrial accidents, the mass media
continually bring into our daily lives the awareness of risk. But how do people respond to this …

[图书][B] Self-insight: Roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing thyself

D Dunning - 2012 - taylorfrancis.com
People base thousands of choices across a lifetime on the views they hold of their skill and
moral character, yet a growing body of research in psychology shows that such self-views …

Biases in social comparative judgments: the role of nonmotivated factors in above-average and comparative-optimism effects.

JR Chambers, PD Windschitl - Psychological bulletin, 2004 - psycnet.apa.org
Biases in social comparative judgments, such as those illustrated by above-average and
comparative-optimism effects, are often regarded as products of motivated reasoning (eg …