Machine learning advances for time series forecasting

RP Masini, MC Medeiros… - Journal of economic …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning (ML) and
high‐dimensional models for time‐series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear …

High-dimensional multivariate forecasting with low-rank gaussian copula processes

D Salinas, M Bohlke-Schneider… - Advances in neural …, 2019 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for
applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or …

Oracle inequalities for high dimensional vector autoregressions

AB Kock, L Callot - Journal of Econometrics, 2015 - Elsevier
This paper establishes non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for the prediction error and
estimation accuracy of the LASSO in stationary vector autoregressive models. These …

Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods

S Smeekes, E Wijler - International journal of forecasting, 2018 - Elsevier
We study the suitability of applying lasso-type penalized regression techniques to macroe-
conomic forecasting with high-dimensional datasets. We consider the performances of lasso …

High‐dimensional macroeconomic forecasting and variable selection via penalized regression

Y Uematsu, S Tanaka - The Econometrics Journal, 2019 - academic.oup.com
This study examines high-dimensional forecasting and variable selection via folded-
concave penalized regressions. The penalized regression approach leads to sparse …

Bayesian MIDAS penalized regressions: estimation, selection, and prediction

M Mogliani, A Simoni - Journal of Econometrics, 2021 - Elsevier
We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional
environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian estimation and …

Determination of vector error correction models in high dimensions

C Liang, M Schienle - Journal of econometrics, 2019 - Elsevier
We provide a shrinkage type methodology which allows for simultaneous model selection
and estimation of vector error correction models (VECM) when the dimension is large and …

Unit roots and cointegration

S Smeekes, E Wijler - Macroeconomic forecasting in the era of big data …, 2020 - Springer
In this chapter we investigate how the possible presence of unit roots and cointegration
affects forecasting with Big Data. As most macroeoconomic time series are very persistent …

Penalized time series regression

AB Kock, M Medeiros, G Vasconcelos - … Forecasting in the Era of Big Data …, 2020 - Springer
This chapter covers penalized regression in the framework of linear time series models and
reviews the most commonly used penalized estimators in applied work, namely Ridge …

Testing the lag structure of assets' realized volatility dynamics

F Audrino, L Camponovo, C Roth - Available at SSRN 2549063, 2015 - papers.ssrn.com
A (conservative) test is constructed to investigate the optimal lag structure for forecasting
realized volatility dynamics. The testing procedure relies on the recent theoretical results that …