We document that since 1994, the equity premium is earned entirely in weeks 0, 2, 4, and 6
in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cycle time, that is, even weeks starting from the …

While the degree of policy inertia in central banks' reaction functions is a central ingredient
in theoretical and empirical monetary economics, the source of the observed policy inertia in …

Central banks have become remarkably more transparent over the last few decades. In this
paper, we study the effects of this evolution, focusing on whether enhanced central bank …

Three decades ago, Christopher A. Sims suggested that vector autoregressions (VARs) are
useful statistical devices for evaluating alternative macroeconomic models. His suggestion …

Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process,
there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of …

Since the move toward more central bank transparency, a lot of research on its desirability
from an economic viewpoint has been carried out. We provide an up-to-date overview of this …

We explore empirically the theoretical prediction that public information acts as a focal point
in the context of the US monetary policy. We aim at establishing whether the publication of …

This paper assesses the behavior of survey forecasts in Brazil during the inflation targeting
regime, when managing expectations is one of the cornerstones of the conduct of monetary …

This paper proposes a possible way of assessing the effect on interest rate dynamics of
changes in the decision‐making method, in the communication strategy and in the …

Using survey data from 25 economies we provide evidence that greater transparency
surrounding monetary policy reduces uncertainty of interest rates and inflation, primarily by …