Trend detection of atmospheric time series: Incorporating appropriate uncertainty estimates and handling extreme events

KL Chang, MG Schultz, X Lan, A McClure-Begley… - Elem Sci …, 2021 - online.ucpress.edu
This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its
goal is to (1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series …

Anthropogenic influence on extremes and risk hotspots

F Estrada, P Perron, Y Yamamoto - Scientific Reports, 2023 - nature.com
Study of the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes as the world warms is of utmost
importance, especially separating the influence of natural and anthropogenic forcing factors …

Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis

C Morana, G Sbrana - Economic Modelling, 2019 - Elsevier
Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe
(cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent …

Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes

F Estrada, D Kim, P Perron - Scientific Reports, 2021 - nature.com
Due to various feedback processes called Arctic amplification, the high-latitudes' response
to increases in radiative forcing is much larger than elsewhere in the world, with a warming …

Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures

A Phella, VJ Gabriel, LF Martins - Energy Economics, 2024 - Elsevier
This paper explores a range of simple models to study the relationship between global
temperature anomalies and climate forcings. In particular, we consider quantile regression …

Anthropogenic influence in observed regional warming trends and the implied social time of emergence

F Estrada, D Kim, P Perron - Communications Earth & Environment, 2021 - nature.com
The attribution of climate change allows for the evaluation of the contribution of human
drivers to observed warming. At the global and hemispheric scales, many physical and …

A multicointegration model of global climate change

SB Bruns, Z Csereklyei, DI Stern - Journal of Econometrics, 2020 - Elsevier
We model the role of the ocean in climate change, using the concept of multicointegration.
Surface temperature and radiative forcing cointegrate and the accumulated cointegration …

On the persistence of near‐surface temperature dynamics in a warming world

F Estrada, P Perron, Y Yamamoto - Annals of the New York …, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
We consider issues related to the effect of climate change on the persistence of (trend‐
corrected) temperatures using global gridded data for both land and oceans. We first discuss …

Could detection and attribution of climate change trends be spurious regression?

DP Cummins, DB Stephenson, PA Stott - Climate Dynamics, 2022 - Springer
Since the 1970s, scientists have developed statistical methods intended to formalize
detection of changes in global climate and to attribute such changes to relevant causal …

Inference related to common breaks in a multivariate system with joined segmented trends with applications to global and hemispheric temperatures

D Kim, T Oka, F Estrada, P Perron - Journal of Econometrics, 2020 - Elsevier
What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be
characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the …