We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply
and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign …

We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by
different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome by global arbitrageurs with …

This Mundell–Fleming lecture reviews some of the main developments in international
macroeconomics since the early 2000s. It highlights four important areas of progress:(a) on …

We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they
successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two-year horizon, both in and out of …

Exposures of expected future nominal depreciation rates to the current interest rate
differential violate the UIP hypothesis in a pattern that is a nonmonotonic function of horizon …

We document that, over the past two decades, investors' assessment of US risk has risen
relative to other G. 7 economies, driven by expectations of greater long-run (permanent) risk …

I build a model in which speculators unwind carry trades and hedgers fly to relatively liquid
US Treasuries during global financial disasters. The net effect of these flows produces an …

Using data on the external assets and liabilities of global banks based in the UK, the world's
largest centre for international banking, we identify exogenous cross-border banking flows …

Classical contributions in international macroeconomics reconcile low international risk
sharing by generating a non-traded component to exchange rates. However, when there is …

A long-standing puzzle in international finance is that a positive interest rate differential
systematically forecasts an exchange rate appreciation—the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) …