Electronic media have unlocked a hitherto largely untapped potential for swarm intelligence
(SI; generally, the realisation that group living can facilitate solving cognitive problems that …

This paper presents an attempt to study and monitor the evolution of research on prediction
markets (PM). It provides an extended literature review and classification scheme. The …

Election forecasts have traditionally been based on representative polls, in which randomly
sampled individuals are asked who they intend to vote for. While representative polling has …

The failure of public policies is ubiquitous. This paper ascribes this failure to the complex
system nature of public policies. A key characteristic of complex systems is that they cannot …

Do consumers really care where products come from and how they are made? Is there such
a thing as an'ethical consumer'? Corporations and policy makers are bombarded with …

Purpose–Social media provide an impressive amount of data about users and their
interactions, thereby offering computer and social scientists, economists, and statisticians …

“Prediction markets” are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though
election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date …

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured
approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to …

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the
conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential …

Public opinion polls have long played an important role in the study and conduct of
elections. In this essay, I outline the evolution of polling as used for three different functions …