Detection of approaching critical transitions in natural systems driven by red noise

A Morr, N Boers - Physical Review X, 2024 - APS
Detection of critical slowing down (CSD) is the dominant avenue for anticipating critical
transitions from noisy time-series data. Most commonly, changes in variance and lag-1 …

Unveiling geomagnetic reversals: Insights from tipping points theory

T Alberti, F Florindo, P De Michelis… - Geophysical Research …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
The geomagnetic field shows aperiodic reversals and excursions separated by stable
polarity periods. Although the exact mechanisms responsible of reversals are still debated …

Anticipating critical transitions in multidimensional systems driven by time-and state-dependent noise

A Morr, K Riechers, LR Gorjão, N Boers - Physical Review Research, 2024 - APS
Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in
various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a …

Effective precursors for self-organization of complex systems into a critical state based on dynamic series data

A Dmitriev, A Lebedev, V Kornilov, V Dmitriev - Frontiers in Physics, 2023 - frontiersin.org
Many different precursors are known, but not all of which are effective, ie, giving enough time
to take preventive measures and with a minimum number of false early warning signals. The …

Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics

U Feudel - Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions, 2023 - npg.copernicus.org
The climate system as well as ecosystems might undergo relatively sudden qualitative
changes in the dynamics when environmental parameters or external forcings vary due to …

Earth system resilience and tipping behavior

C Yi, V Dakos, PDL Ritchie, J Sillmann… - Environmental …, 2024 - iopscience.iop.org
Anthropogenic climate change, marked by unprecedented extremes, is an immediate
concern. The Earth's limited ability to adapt to abrupt changes within our societal timeframe …

Identifying impending failure in heterogeneous materials: A study on acoustic emission time series

LF Friedrich, ÉS Cezar, AB Colpo, BNR Tanzi… - Chaos, Solitons & …, 2024 - Elsevier
In the present paper, precursors to identify impending failure in heterogeneous materials are
investigated by analyzing Acoustic Emission (AE) time series. Three main approaches are …

Ecosystem Resilience Monitoring and Early Warning Using Earth Observation Data: Challenges and Outlook

S Bathiany, R Bastiaansen, A Bastos, L Blaschke… - Surveys in …, 2024 - Springer
As the Earth system is exposed to large anthropogenic interferences, it becomes ever more
important to assess the resilience of natural systems, ie, their ability to recover from natural …

Internal Noise Interference to Warnings of Tipping Points in Generic Multidimensional Dynamical Systems

A Morr, N Boers, P Ashwin - SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, 2024 - SIAM
A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-
node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation …

Twitter Self‐Organization to the Edge of a Phase Transition: Discrete‐Time Model and Effective Early Warning Signals in Phase Space

A Dmitriev, A Lebedev, V Kornilov, V Dmitriev - Complexity, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Many real‐world systems of various origins are capable of self‐organization to the edge of a
phase transition, characterized by avalanche‐like behavior. Therefore, it is important, by …