We demonstrate that there is a considerable variation in bookmaker margins across
matches, time and bookmakers. Our results imply that using match, tournament and players' …

Probabilistic forecasts from discrete choice models, which are widely used in marketing
science and competitive event forecasting, are often best evaluated out-of-sample using …

This paper studies fixed odds bookmaking in the market for bets in a British horse race. The
bookmaker faces the risk of unbalanced liability exposures. Even random shocks in the …

This thesis, which is divided into five papers, explores biased decision making in naturalistic
environments and its implications for the efficiency of financial markets and forecasts of …

Many standard economic models that are used to study the behavior of (groups of)
economics agents assume that these agents have rational expectations. For instance, the …