Forecasting large changes in the numbers of asylum applications, an element of so-called
asylumcrises', is challenging. In this paper, we present a model that shows that the warning …

This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 License. It is
free to read, download and share on Elgaronline. com. This unique book provides a …

Forecasting international migration is a challenge that, despite its political and policy
salience, has seen a limited success so far. In this proof-of-concept paper we employ a …

Migration processes, despite being highly uncertain, volatile and complex, very often
demand concrete, rapid and targeted policy responses. Yet, addressing the uncertainty that …

Second Policy Brief: Output from 2nd policy expert meeting Page 1 QuantMig has received
funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under …