This chapter reviews and synthesizes our current understanding of the shocks that drive
economic fluctuations. The chapter begins with an illustration of the problem of identifying …

Over the past two decades, high-frequency interest rate changes around the Federal
Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, or monetary policy …

This paper evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies
(UMPs). Introducing market segmentation, limits-to-arbitrage, and time-consistent policy in …

To overcome the limits on traditional monetary policy imposed by the effective lower bound
on short-term interest rates, in recent years the Federal Reserve and other advanced …

We develop a new class of general-equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt to
propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. In response to business cycle shocks, the …

We map ECB policy communication into yield curve changes and study the information flow
on policy dates. A byproduct is the publicly available Euro Area Monetary Policy Event-Study …

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and
the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two …

We assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for
stabilization purposes. We review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed …

We study the role of financial frictions and firm heterogeneity in determining the investment
channel of monetary policy. Empirically, we find that firms with low default risk—those with …

In a capitalist system, consumers, investors, and corporations orient their activities toward a
future that contains opportunities and risks. How actors assess uncertainty is a problem that …