We develop a dynamic multicountry general equilibrium model to investigate forces acting
on the global economy during the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. Our multisector …

This paper studies how biases in managerial beliefs affect managerial decisions, firm
performance, and the macroeconomy. Using a new survey of US managers I establish three …

This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations,
and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on …

We develop a framework to analyze economies with agents facing time-varying concerns for
model misspecification. These concerns lead agents to interpret economic outcomes and …

This paper points out a conceptual difficulty in using a variance decomposition to assess the
quantitative importance of news shocks. A variance decomposition will attribute to news …

Current and expected unemployment rates contain information that is highly useful to
estimate the effect of news about TFP and to allow a general equilibrium rational …

We develop a methodology to characterize equilibrium in DSGE models, free of parametric
restrictions on information. First, we define a “primal” economy in which deviations from full …

We study the role of information heterogeneity in determining capital flows during the global
financial cycle. When global uncertainty increases, investors retrench toward their home …

This paper develops a theory of subjective beliefs that departs from rational expectations,
and shows that biases in household beliefs have quantitatively large effects on …

This paper empirically investigates how investors' subjective beliefs drive the crosssection of
stock returns. Using a data set of real-time professional survey forecasts, I first estimate …