This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal
policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can …

This work focuses on the welfare costs of exposure to shocks and uncertainty linked to trade
openness—a prominent issue in international debate. It contributes by presenting a …

Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing,
and recovering their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the …

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in
developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is …

The global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace
of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external …

Esta obra se inició a partir de mis notas de clases del curso de Macroeconomıa que dicté a
finales de la década de 1990, mientras era profesor en el Centro de Economıa Aplicada del …

The historical frequency of banking crises is similar in advanced and developing countries,
with quantitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these …

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the
level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line …

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US
shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin …

Productivity risk is pervasive in underdeveloped countries. This paper highlights a way in
which underdevelopment exacerbates productivity risk. Productivity shocks cause larger …