Learning robust statistics for simulation-based inference under model misspecification

D Huang, A Bharti, A Souza… - Advances in Neural …, 2023 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation
(ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating …

Towards reliable simulation-based inference with balanced neural ratio estimation

A Delaunoy, J Hermans, F Rozet… - Advances in …, 2022 - proceedings.neurips.cc
Modern approaches for simulation-based inference build upon deep learning surrogates to
enable approximate Bayesian inference with computer simulators. In practice, the estimated …

Robust and scalable Bayesian online changepoint detection

M Altamirano, FX Briol… - … Conference on Machine …, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for
changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it …

Investigating the impact of model misspecification in neural simulation-based inference

P Cannon, D Ward, SM Schmon - arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.01845, 2022 - arxiv.org
Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in
recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of …

A trust crisis in simulation-based inference? your posterior approximations can be unfaithful

J Hermans, A Delaunoy, F Rozet, A Wehenkel… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2021 - arxiv.org
We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based
inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our …

Detecting model misspecification in amortized Bayesian inference with neural networks

M Schmitt, PC Bürkner, U Köthe, ST Radev - DAGM German Conference …, 2023 - Springer
Recent advances in probabilistic deep learning enable efficient amortized Bayesian
inference in settings where the likelihood function is only implicitly defined by a simulation …

Optimally-weighted estimators of the maximum mean discrepancy for likelihood-free inference

A Bharti, M Naslidnyk, O Key… - … on Machine Learning, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and
real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has …

Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference

M Gloeckler, M Deistler, JH Macke - arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.14984, 2023 - arxiv.org
Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures
separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference …

Generalized Bayesian inference for discrete intractable likelihood

T Matsubara, J Knoblauch, FX Briol… - Journal of the American …, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference,
since the computation of normalization constants requires summation over large or possibly …

Sensitivity-aware amortized bayesian inference

L Elsemüller, H Olischläger, M Schmitt… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Bayesian inference is a powerful framework for making probabilistic inferences and
decisions under uncertainty. Fundamental choices in modern Bayesian workflows concern …