Learning robust statistics for simulation-based inference under model misspecification
Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation
(ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating …
(ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating …
Towards reliable simulation-based inference with balanced neural ratio estimation
Modern approaches for simulation-based inference build upon deep learning surrogates to
enable approximate Bayesian inference with computer simulators. In practice, the estimated …
enable approximate Bayesian inference with computer simulators. In practice, the estimated …
Robust and scalable Bayesian online changepoint detection
M Altamirano, FX Briol… - … Conference on Machine …, 2023 - proceedings.mlr.press
This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for
changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it …
changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it …
Investigating the impact of model misspecification in neural simulation-based inference
Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in
recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of …
recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of …
A trust crisis in simulation-based inference? your posterior approximations can be unfaithful
We present extensive empirical evidence showing that current Bayesian simulation-based
inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our …
inference algorithms can produce computationally unfaithful posterior approximations. Our …
Detecting model misspecification in amortized Bayesian inference with neural networks
Recent advances in probabilistic deep learning enable efficient amortized Bayesian
inference in settings where the likelihood function is only implicitly defined by a simulation …
inference in settings where the likelihood function is only implicitly defined by a simulation …
Optimally-weighted estimators of the maximum mean discrepancy for likelihood-free inference
Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and
real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has …
real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has …
Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference
Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures
separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference …
separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference …
Generalized Bayesian inference for discrete intractable likelihood
Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference,
since the computation of normalization constants requires summation over large or possibly …
since the computation of normalization constants requires summation over large or possibly …
Sensitivity-aware amortized bayesian inference
L Elsemüller, H Olischläger, M Schmitt… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
Bayesian inference is a powerful framework for making probabilistic inferences and
decisions under uncertainty. Fundamental choices in modern Bayesian workflows concern …
decisions under uncertainty. Fundamental choices in modern Bayesian workflows concern …